Posts filed under 'Disaster'
Open the Future has devised an 7-level “apocalypse scale,” grading the threat to humanity and the planet of 7 levels of disaster.
Given the popularity of mega-disasters in movies, we can consider which of the levels have been depicted — or at least threatened — on screen.
LEVEL — SCALE
0 — Regional catastrophe
Movies depicting:
1 — Human die-back
Movies depicting:
- The Day after Tomorrow
- The Postman
- The Road Warrior
- Terminator
2 — Civilizational extinction
Movies depicting:
- Deep Impact
- 12 Monkeys — due to a madman aiming for a 3A
- Planet of the Apes
- The Matrix
3A — Human extinction–engineered
Movies depicting:
- On the Beach — the apparently imminent fate of humanity after a nuclear war
- Children of Men — global sterility of unknown cause
- Independence Day — or so the aliens intend
3B — Human extinction–natural
Movies depicting:
4 — Biosphere extinction
Movies depicting:
5 — Planetary extinction
Movies depicting:
- Armageddon — “nothing will survive” unless the giant asteroid is deflected, though a Texas-sized asteroid might be more like a level 4
X — Planetary elimination
Movies depicting:
- Star Wars — Alderaan at the hands of the Death Star
January 24th, 2007
FORECAST SUMMARY
Movie set in: 2027
Event / Likelihood
Universal sterility — low
Global flu pandemic — high
RATINGS
Overall rating: 6.8 (9th of 124 movies)
Futurism rating: 6
The movie is thoughtful but devotes most of its energy to the issues of today rather than the ramifications of its central premise.
Entertainment rating: 8
Tense and uncompromising, and serious about everything it depicts, Children of Men is a well-made movie.
Plausibility rating: 7
There are ways something like this could occur, and the effects might be much like those shown.
Approach to the future
Backdrop for storytelling that takes it cues from our own time.
TOPICS DEPICTED
Universal sterility
No children have been born since 2009, and an 18-year-old Argentine holds the title of “world’s youngest person.”
The cause is unknown–biotechnology is mentioned as a possibility–but the effects have been dire: without new generations to give life meaning, most societies have collapsed, and only Britain seems to have remained intact.
Such an event is unlikely but possible, and the possibility is rising as the reach of technologies grows. The three most likely routes are chemicals, biotechology, and nanotechnology.
We use thousands of chemicals, and introduce more every day, and the precise effects of each one of them are unknown. Some are suspected of being dangerous to health, including reproductive health, and have spread to every corner of the planet. In the developed world, the remains of pharmaceuticals are now extremely widespread in drinking water.
Biotechnology is spreading, with only partial regulation, and most humans now consume genetically engineered food products. While it seems unlikely that they would have drastic effects, the potential for accidents will grow if pharming–using agriculture to produce drugs–becomes widespread.
A newly emerging threat is nanotechnology. Nanotechnological materials are being produced on a mass scale and used in many consumer products, with very little understanding of their interaction with human health or the environment.
Some suggest that we should heed the fate of frogs: the are in decline around the planet, and we don’t know why. If we’ve done something to them, we might be doing it to ourselves as well.
Flu pandemic
A flu pandemic strikes in 2008, though its scale is not clear.
This is nearly inevitable.
A pandemic flu, such as avian flu, could strike at any time. Effects could be relatively mild, but some forecast death tolls of 80 million or even higher.
Such a calamity would shake the global system and could destabilize some fragilie societies.
January 17th, 2007
A 2001 apocalypse movie, Ever Since the World Ended, is being released on DVD tomorrow.
Says the NYT, “This mock-documentary imagines the possible outcome after a strange and virulent virus sweeps the world, killing the vast majority of the Earth’s population and reducing the city of San Francisco to only 186 people.”
The movie seems to cover some of the ground between the excellent day-after of 28 Days Later and the blurry long-term aftermath of 12 Monkeys.
January 9th, 2007
A manifestation of unusually long-term thinking is taking form on the Arctic island of Svalbard: a “doomsday” seed bank meant to contain every kind of agricultural seed on the planet.
The high-security vault, almost half the length of a football field, will be carved into a mountain on a remote island above the Arctic Circle. If the looming fences, motion detectors and steel airlock doors are not disincentive enough for anyone hoping to breach the facility’s concrete interior, the polar bears roaming outside should help.
Given how little thought is given to a whole range of serious threats, this project is remarkably proactive:
The “doomsday vault,” as some have come to call it, is to be the ultimate backup in the event of a global catastrophe — the go-to place after an asteroid hit or nuclear or biowarfare holocaust so that, difficult as those times would be, humankind would not have to start again from scratch.
Planners even examined what is likely to happen to Svalbard if global warming picks up, and how it would fare in the event of serious cooling due to a Gulf Stream collapse.
There is a a little-known futurist movie precedent: the odd 1971 environmentalist-in-space film Silent Running (rating on FatM — it is rated 64th of 118 movies). The Earth has been transformed — it is now 75 degrees everywhere — and the last forests and flowers exist only on a small fleet of space ships in orbit near Saturn. One man is trying to preserve them for the future, and goes to extremes to do so.
June 21st, 2006
A “psychic” has predicted a tsunami-generating comet — as in Deep Impact — for Thursday, May 25th. His site is unavailable, but the warning is reproduced here and discussed at length by Bad Astronomy.
We must admire the fellow in one regard: he gave himself only a very small window before he was proved delusional, or a fraud.
May 23rd, 2006
The US government is finalizing plans to respond to a flu pandemic, the Washington Post reports. The plans include everything from increasing Internet capacity to handle mass telecommuting to having other nations print American currency if US mints are unable to operate.
An unfolding pandemic has not been fully depicted in film. The closest movies have come is Outbreak, but that differed from likely flu scenarios in a number of ways.
On the positive side, flu is never 100% fatal, and typically has quite low mortality rates. (Avian flu is thought to have much higher than normal mortality, but there is some uncertainty about this.) On the negative side, the disease in that movie was confined to one small town, while a flu outbreak will almost certainly be widespread.
The plans under discussion anticipate “an 18-month crisis” that in the “worst-case scenario could kill 1.9 million Americans.” Anywhere near that level of mortality would strain economic and social systems, as any contact with other people could put one at risk of death. One Homeland Security official suggests that the National Guard might be needed in areas facing “insurrection.”
April 16th, 2006
LiveScience recently offered a handy list of 10 ways to destroy the planet. The author won’t tolerate merely making it unpleasant or uninhabitable; only outright destruction is good enough. (Note: in a futurist’s attic I once saw an old 1970s document of possible megaprojects people could pursue. One of the bullet points was “Destroy the moon.”)
January 8th, 2006