Disaster: preparing for an outbreak

The US government is finalizing plans to respond to a flu pandemic, the Washington Post reports. The plans include everything from increasing Internet capacity to handle mass telecommuting to having other nations print American currency if US mints are unable to operate.

An unfolding pandemic has not been fully depicted in film. The closest movies have come is Outbreak, but that differed from likely flu scenarios in a number of ways.

On the positive side, flu is never 100% fatal, and typically has quite low mortality rates. (Avian flu is thought to have much higher than normal mortality, but there is some uncertainty about this.) On the negative side, the disease in that movie was confined to one small town, while a flu outbreak will almost certainly be widespread.

The plans under discussion anticipate “an 18-month crisis” that in the “worst-case scenario could kill 1.9 million Americans.” Anywhere near that level of mortality would strain economic and social systems, as any contact with other people could put one at risk of death. One Homeland Security official suggests that the National Guard might be needed in areas facing “insurrection.”

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